Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
