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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.