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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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